To Peak or
not to Peak, is that the question?
Whilst the oil keeps streaming from the hole in the
bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, it is fascinating what
different responses it causes in the professional world.
Whilst all are devastated by the effects it has on nature
and the floral and faunal world, there seems to be a
dichotomy on what this spill actually means.
Whilst in the Peak Oil movement the simple fact that BP
was drilling for a field with an estimated reserve of
apparently only 50 mm barrel, seen as a sign how desperate
the world is for new reserves and the difficulties oil
companies are prepared to go through to find new oil, other
analysts have a different story. v According to another
reading, the BP-leak is much more than an instrument
malfunctioning, causing a spill of hitherto unknown
dimensions. Here we can read that the drilling was in a very
sensitive spot and basically tapping in a grand vein of
possibly a-biotic oil with very large reservoirs below it.
Also the estimation of the amount of oil leaking in both
‘camps’ differ radically, whereas latest figures are now
actually moving toward a daily leaking of about 100.000
barrel a day, through what one analyst describes as: “what
lies under the gaping chasm spewing oil at an ever-alarming
rate is a cavern estimated to be the size of Mount Everest.”
When this information was passed on the several experts
in peak oil, the response was one from disbelief and
rejection: a-biotic oil does not exist!
To bring you in the loop: The theory of a-biotic oil,
developed long ago in the USSR and successfully applied in
finding provinces that would not have had oil according to
the normal geological calculations, says that oil actually
is formed deep inside the planet and slowly works itself to
the higher levels of the earth’s crust, where it can be
found.
The conventional theory about oil says that it is formed
in earlier times as a result of decaying natural material
(algae, plants etc.) that got locked in over time and after
a very long time (millions of years) under high pressure and
temperature became oil and migrated to places where we now
can find it.
Personally I have never understood the animosity between
the two ‘camps‘, as both theories do not exclude each other
and both have their merits. As anyone that has ever put his
boot in a canal with black mud knows: if you withdraw your
foot, an oilfilm most probably appears on the water: the
result of decaying natural material that turns in an
oil-like substance: this is the oil of the future.
At the same time there is the tale that the North
American Indians called oil ‘the blood of mother Earth’,
which makes perfectly sense, as the Earth is a living
organism and it has been proven that oil is formed up in
deep layers, migrating up, gathering in pools that we find
later as oilfields.
Of course it may need a different mindset to give credit
to the possibility of a living earth and oil forming up as a
natural fluid within the planet. That its original purpose
may not be, to be burned by humans to ‘fire up the
economies’ and pollute the atmosphere may be clear.
Nevertheless it is there and is an important part of our
living today.
The deep dichotomy between the experts appears in the
evaluation about possible reserves. The biotic oil-school is
trying to make the world take notice that we have found most
of the easy oil and that we need to find alternatives and
need to prepare ourselves for the eventuality of it being
only limitedly available. Peak Oil.
The people from the a-biotic oil-school are saying that
there is enough oil still to be found, would we only look
different and elsewhere, and try to invalidate or ease the
worry or unrest (or hype?) about the imminence of physical
shortage in reserves.
Peak oil supply is another issue, about which the worries
have been reduced the last years due to the combination of
economic recession and subsequent reduction in demand, and
new capacity in the market.
What is further causing unclarity about this is that the
speculators have been jumping on the bandwagon of the
peak-oilers, as this can be used for scare-scenarios that
help to drive the prices. (Recently a new record was broken
with only in the NY and London future markets 2,5 billion
barrels being traded in 1 day, 29 times daily global demand,
tendency growing).
Whatever may be the case: if BP was only drilling into a
small field, the disaster may still be limited, albeit of
enormous proportions.
If BP actually ruptured a vein of planet earth and has
caused a kind of ‘arterial bleeding’, we may be in deep
trouble, as this may be very difficult to repair.
When the leak continues, the oil (and the
dispersal-chemicals) will start to enter the warm
Gulf-Stream and oil will start to reach the shores of
England, Ireland and Scotland in not-to-far-distant times.
Whether this will have grander effects due to the changing
of the consistence of the water in the gulfstream, we do not
know yet, nor what this would mean for the climate in
Western Europe, which is mild due to this stream of warm
water.
Time will tell and we can only hope the best.
Stay flexible,
Alexander
Your responses are welcome at
alexander@gas-oil-power.com |