Date: 22-Jun-10
Country: USA
Author: Scott DiSavino
 

A tropical wave spawning a large area of thunderstorms in the eastern Caribbean Sea could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Monday.

The NHC gave the system a medium 30 percent chance of developing, up from 20 percent earlier Monday.

Specifically, the NHC said, "Although there is no evidence of a surface circulation ... this system is showing some signs of organization and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development during the next couple of days."

The Center warned this system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of northern Venezuela, the Netherlands Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti over the next day or so.

Flooding would be especially damaging in Haiti, which is still trying to rebuild after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake devastated it last January.

Over the next several days, most weather models project the system will march west-northwest across the Caribbean Sea toward the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico before possibly reaching the oil- and natural gas-rich Gulf of Mexico where BP Plc is trying to clean up its massive oil spill.

Energy traders keep a close eye on storms that could enter the Gulf and disrupt offshore U.S. oil and natural gas production or refinery operations along the coast.

Commodities traders likewise watch storms that could damage agriculture crops such as citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the coast to Texas.

Pricing of insurance-linked securities, which transfer insurance risks associated with natural disasters to capital markets investors and can be used to hedge other weather risk exposures, can also be affected by the path of a storm.

(Editing by Jim Marshall)