Crude futures weaker and 'could go lower': traders
London (Platts)--15Mar2010/805 am EDT/1205 GMT
Crude futures drifted lower as the European morning drew to a close
Monday, remaining largely rangebound following the two-month highs
reached last week.
The front-month NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent contracts hit highs of
$83.16/b and $81.46/b respectively last week, while non-commercial
length in the WTI contract was reported to have soared.
At 12:00 GMT, the April WTI contract traded 49 cents lower at
$80.75/barrel, while the April Brent contract on ICE was down 49 cents
at $78.90/b. The two contracts have spent the day in respective ranges
of $80.52-$81.31/b and $78.55-$79.53/b.
"The market is struggling a little even with some decent news,"
said a trading source Monday following the release of supportive macro
data from the US last week.
Edward Meir of MF Global said in a report Monday, "Technically,
most complexes look constructive, but we are seeing bearish double-top
formations being carved out on both crude contracts, as well as in gas
oil. In addition, net non-commercial length has soared to a two-month
high, so it is unlikely fresh longs will pile in at this late point,
suggesting that the bulk of the price gains may be behind us."
Continuing, he said: "If we are wrong, and instead close above
the old high of $83.85 on WTI, this would be very bullish, although at
this point, we fail to see what exactly could trigger such a surge."
The front-month spread on ICE Brent fell ahead of Tuesday's
April Brent expiry. The spread reached a high of minus $0.20/b on March
8 and traded as low as minus $0.72/b through that morning.
The WTI/Brent spread has remained steady, with the arbitrage
oscillating around $1.75/b since February 10.
Ahead of OPEC's planned meeting in Vienna Wednesday, Iran's
OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi at the weekend said there was no need
for the group to change its output quota, echoing remarks from other
officials as the meeting approaches.
--Elzbieta Rabalska, elzbieta_rabalska@platts.com
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