EMISSION CRITICAL:US '09 CO2 Drop Biggest On Record,Won't Last

By David Bird
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The U.S. posted its biggest-ever decline in carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2009, according to preliminary government data.

The drop, which is the bittersweet byproduct of the battered economy, is the equivalent of eliminating the annual greenhouse gas emissions from almost a third of the nation's registered vehicles. It also highlights the tight link between economic activity and emissions as the impact of proposed climate change rules on businesses is being hotly debated in Washington, D.C. The Obama administration is pushing for a 17% target reduction in greenhouse gases from 2005 levels by 2020.

Burning of fossil fuels - coal, natural gas and petroleum - accounts for the lion's share of U.S. emissions of CO2. Carbon dioxide pollution from these three fuels fell by around 6.5% to 5.4 billion metric tons, the lowest level since 1995, according to the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. This is the biggest drop since data collection began in 1949.

The Great Recession was primarily responsible for the curtailed emissions, as U.S. real gross domestic product dropped 2.4% in 2009, in the biggest decline since 1946. Greater use of cleaner-burning fuels, such as ethanol, a gasoline additive usually made from corn, had an impact, albeit a marginal one, on reducing C02 emissions.

Demand for petroleum, which is the biggest source of CO2 emissions, was slammed for a second-straight year. Steep drops in jet fuel use and demand for fuels such as diesel and heating oil in 2009 resulted in a 4.2% drop in oil consumption, to a 12-year low of 18.7 million barrels a day. The drop of 5.9% in emissions in 2008 was the biggest since 1981. C02 emissions from burning oil were 2.33 billion metric tons in 2009, the lowest since 1997.

Consumption of gasoline, the most widely used fuel, was flat in 2009 at about 9 million barrels a day, with CO2 emissions from the motor fuel down by a slim 0.8%. Perry Lindstrom, a greenhouse-gas inventory analyst at the EIA, said increased use of ethanol helped limit CO2 emissions. Ethanol use jumped 13% in the first 11 months of 2009, Lindstrom said.

Without that ethanol, CO2 emissions from gasoline use would have been about 1.5% higher than they were in 2009, he said.

These latest numbers put the relationship between economic growth and emissions into stark relief and go a long way toward explaining why fast-growing nations such as China and India are reluctant to take on their own emitting industries. Unlike CO2 reductions made from conservation or the use of cleaner-burning fuels, declines like those seen last year - while a boon to environmentalists and others worried about climate change - aren't sustainable. An expected uptick in the economy later this year is expected to spark a modest 1.5% rebound in CO2 emissions along with stronger fuel demand.

"Increased use of coal in the electric-power sector and continued economic growth, combined with the expansion of travel-related petroleum consumption, lead to a 1.3% increase in CO2 emissions in 2011," the EIA predicted in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook in February. Even with those increases, CO2 emissions of around 5.6 billion metric tons in 2011 will still be lower than annual levels from 1999 to 2008, the EIA said.

Last year, coal demand fell by more than 10%. Emissions from burning it fell by almost 11%, the biggest decline in 50 years, according to the EIA. This was due to reduced industrial demand and switch to cheaper natural gas by power producers. Natural gas use dropped 1.9%, and emissions from the blue fuel slipped by 1.6%.

(David Bird is senior energy correspondent for Dow Jones Newswires and can be reached at (212) 416-2141, or david.bird@dowjones.com.)

EMISSION CRITICAL: US '09 CO2 Drop Biggest On Record,Won't Last