Amsterdam (Platts)--3Mar2010/657 am EST/1157 GMT

The European Union is likely to commit to a 30% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, according to an official with the Dutch ministry of foreign affairs Wednesday.

"I am confident we will go to 30%," said Hugo von Meijenfeldt, the Dutch special envoy for climate change, speaking to Platts on the sidelines of Point Carbon's Carbon Market Insights conference in Amsterdam.

The EU has a long standing unilateral target to cut emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2020 and has said it will deepen the cut to 30% under a post-Kyoto Protocol global climate change agreement, if other industrialized countries take on comparable targets.

Von Meijenfeldt said the EU definition of "comparable" is not necessarily "equal." The EU expects that a degree of horse-trading would be necessary in order to get industrialized countries to take on targets that are seen as comparable in ambition, taking into account national circumstances.

He noted some speculation that the EU could opt for a compromise emissions target somewhere between 20% and 30%, but in his view, this is an unlikely outcome.

"I think it has to be 20%, or 30% under a new deal," he said.

While remaining confident that the EU will secure the 30% cut, von Meijenfeldt said the main barriers to agreement are the governments of Poland and Italy.

Poland is almost totally dependent on coal for its power supply, and this has prompted fear in the Polish government that a deeper EU target could create an undue burden on the country's economic growth. But he said he was confident that specific measures could be implemented for Poland that would assuage those fears.

In Italy's case, he said the problem was more political than economic.

Von Meijenfeldt said the EU Emissions Trading Scheme is only one tool that can be used to deliver the targeted emissions cuts. "The EU ETS only covers 40% of CO2 emissions. We can also find areas of emissions abatement in transport, buildings and agriculture," he said.

He said it was likely that the EU would agree to the 30% cut before United Nations climate talks set for Cancun, Mexico beginning November 29.

Kyoto's binding emissions reduction obligations expire at the end of 2012, and due to the expected time taken to ratify a new treaty, a new deal must be secured in Cancun to avoid an international climate policy gap, he said.

--Frank Watson, frank_watson@platts.com