In that article I stated: "...and they (Almanac) have forecast a cold, bitter winter for much of the nation this year."
In regards to the Weather Service, I stated: "...which is calling for warmer than normal temperatures across most of the country. They are calling for El Nino this year..." So it seems the Almanac was more right than the Weather Service.
An El Nino year is classified as bringing Pacific winter storms across the southern U.S. That means that during El Nino years, typically cold areas, such as New England, the upper Midwest and much of Canada, see a warmer, drier winter than normal, while southern states experience colder, wetter conditions than normal.
Nope, didn't get that totally right. At one point this winter the news was full of the fact that 49 states had snow on the ground at the same time. Because this was a very cold, snowy winter for most of the country, including us, and because all I hear from people lately is how sick they are of winter and being cold, we have decided to publish spring and fall forecasts from both the Farmer's Almanac and the Weather Service and let the contest begin.
In doing research on the Almanac, I found the following information on how they predict the weather: "This formula considers many factors, such as sunspots, moon phases and other astronomical and atmospheric factors and conditions. Since 1818 this carefully guarded formula has been passed along from calculator to calculator and has never been revealed." They go on to state that this is done several years in advance and they can't go back and change the forecasts so they are somewhat generalized.
As stated in the previous article, there are claims the Almanac is 80 to 85 percent accurate. Here are some specific instances when they were right. In 2009 it was predicted that an exceptionally cold winter and a cool, wet spring and summer for most regions, correct; the summer of 2008 prediction was for hurricane threats along the Gulf Coast, one in mid-July and one in mid-August, Dolly hit Texas in mid-July and Tropical storm Fay in mid-August in Southern Florida. Also in 2008, an exceptionally active tornado season in the Midwest was predicted and did happen, more than 700 in all.
There are many more predictions going back decades that have been proved true, so let's see what both sides predict for this spring and summer.
The Weather Service: "El Nino impacts are expected to last through the spring for the Northern Hemisphere. Expected impacts during March-May 2010 include above-average precipitation for the Southwest, the south-central states, and Florida, and below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region. Above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England and the Northern Plains), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and southern states."
Upon further research there seem to be some contradictions in the Weather Service's predictions. Several maps indicate that our area could see anywhere from cooler, more normal rain, to warmer and wetter for the spring, and cooler and drier weather for the summer.
The Farmer's Almanac: "April and May are predicted to be slightly cooler and wetter than normal with no snow storms indicated. Summer will be cooler and slightly rainier than normal, although there will be hot weather in early July and August."
It appears that it's anyone's guess what will happen this spring and summer. What we can expect is weather and as long as there isn't much snow, everyone should be happy.
* Reach the reporter at kwarnick@wmicentral.com To subscribe or visit go to: http://www.wmicentral.com