IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were
detected during the forecast period. New Regions 1052 (S16W25) and
1053 (S23W33) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low due to the return of old Region 1045 (N24, L242) and two
newly numbered regions 1052 and 1053.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An increase to unsettled
levels was observed between 1500Z and 1800Z. The increase was in
response to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (02 March) due to the
coronal hole mentioned above. Activity is expected to be at quiet
levels on days two and three (03 - 04 March) as the coronal hole
effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 078
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales