IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a
C2 x-ray event at 1611Z from Region 1052 (S17W70), as well as
numerous B-class events. Regions 1052 and 1053 (S22W77) showed slow
growth during the past 24 hours and exhibited slightly elevated
levels of activity. An overall increasing trend was noted in the
x-ray background levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for isolated C-class events during the
next three days (05-07 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a small
increase in speed with values ranging between 440-460 km/s at the
end of the reporting period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (05-07
March).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 081
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales