IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class events. The largest of these was a B4/Sf
at 2039Z from Region 1054 (N15E43). This region showed steady growth
throughout the day and is classified as a D type group. The total
sunspot area increased to about 160 millionths near the end of the
period. New Region 1055 (S23W15) also continued to emerge slowly and
is currently a C-type group with about 30 millionths in area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1054 or 1055.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and was
mostly unsettled to active at high latitudes. However, there were
some isolated storm intervals at high latitudes between 0000-1200Z.
Solar wind observations from ACE showed elevated velocities around
460-500 km/s with low density (1-3 p/cc). The signatures are
consistent with a weak high speed stream, presumably from the
southward extension of the northern polar coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 March). An
increase to quiet to unsettled is possible on the third day (14
March) due to effects from a recurrent solar sector boundary.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 084
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/30
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales