IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 1054 (N16W53) and
1056 (N18E34) remain stable and quiet. Both remain at a Beta
magnetic classification and have produced only low level B-class
flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels with only a slight chance for a C-class flare
during the next 3 days (19-21 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with a brief period of
unsettled conditions between 03-06Z. Solar wind speeds have
decreased to around 400km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the next 3 days (19-21 March).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 086
Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 18 Mar 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales