IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1057 (N15E45) has shown steady growth in area (400
millionths) and is still classified as a D group. Several B-class
flares were observed from Region 1057, the largest being a B7,
optically uncorrelated event, at 25/0433Z. A far-sided CME was
observed at 25/0128Z with an associated Type II radio sweep (shock
velocity 1395 km/s), but does not look to be geoeffective. Region
1058 (N27W06) was numbered today and is classified as a simple A
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. There is a chance for C-class flares from
Region 1057.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft
showed an increase of wind speed from 300 to 430 km/s following a
rise in density (1 to 22 p/cc). These signatures are indicative of a
co-rotating interactive region in advance of a weak coronal hole
high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (26
March) as the effects of the coronal hole high-speed stream subside.
On day two (27 March), quiet levels are expected. On day three (28
March), the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels as a new coronal hole high-speed stream becomes
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 088
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 088/089/089
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 005/005-005/007-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales