Certainty vs. Uncertainty:
Understanding Scientific Terms about Climate
Change
Climate change deniers have tried to
claim that less than complete certainty
about climate science means the same
thing as not knowing anything. But the
truth is, scientists know a great deal
about global warming.
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Uncertainty is ubiquitous in our daily lives.
We are uncertain about where to go to college,
where we should live, who will play in the World
Series.
To most of us, uncertainty means not knowing.
To scientists, however, uncertainty is how well
something is known. This is an important
difference, especially when trying to understand
what is known about climate change.
In this culture of transparency where climate
scientists describe degrees of certainty and
confidence in their findings, climate change
deniers have linked less than complete certainty
with not knowing anything.
But the truth is, scientists know a great
deal about climate change. We have learned, for
example, that the burning of fossil fuels and
the clearing of forests release carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere. There is no uncertainty
about this. We have learned that carbon dioxide
and other gases in the atmosphere trap heat
through the greenhouse effect. Again, there is
no uncertainty about this. It is very likely
(greater than 90 percent probability) that human
activities are the main reason for the world's
temperature increase in the past 50 years.
Read more …
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