IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. A single
low-level B-class flare occurred during the period. Region 1069
(N42W51) showed a decrease in area, but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. An eruptive prominence and associated CME
(estimated velocity 507 km/sec) occurred near the southwest limb
very early in the period. The CME did not appear to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 2 (07 - 08 May) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to
very low levels on day 3 (09 May) as Region 1069 crosses the west
limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. However,
a brief period of active levels was detected at Boulder around
06/0800Z. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained
within a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
varied from 491 - 584 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 3 (07 -
09 May). There is also a chance for active levels during days 2 - 3
(08 - 09 May) in response to recent CME activity.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 20/20/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 079
Predicted 07 May-09 May 078/076/075
90 Day Mean 06 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 007/009-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1663
Issue Time: 2010 May 07 0643 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1662
Begin Time: 2010 May 03 1235 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 28796 pfu
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales