IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Plage Region 1068 (S19W50)
produced a B2 flare at 13/0355Z. The visible disk remained spotless.
No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (14 - 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (14 May). Field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3
(15 - 16 May) due to a coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 069
Predicted 14 May-16 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 May 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/005-007/007-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1669
Begin Time: 2010 May 03 1235 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3639 pfu
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales