Monday, 29 Nov 2010 11:26 AM
By Forrest Jones
Contagion from the European debt crisis could infect U.S.
markets, and if it does, it will happen fast, says John Bogle,
founder of the Vanguard asset-management firm.
European markets have taken a beating lately due to concerns
that economic crises in Ireland will spread to countries such as
Spain and Portugal.
Ireland has accepted a bailout package to rescue its banking
sector, but the problem with European bailouts, Bogle tells
CNBC, is that those countries aiding their neighbors are dealing
with their own economic problems as well.
“I look to Europe, and I’m wondering who’s supporting who over
there. These are not wealthy nations, any of them, and they are
supporting their weakest members," Bogle says. "I don't see how
it could help but be contagion," he said.
“Whether we like it or not we live in a global world and any
kind of contagion is going to spread very quickly.”
The U.S. stock market is recovering although not in a stellar
fashion, Bogle says, with earnings growing in line with overall
economic growth.
"I don’t see anything that’s rapidly going to increase the rate
of U.S. growth and world growth.”
Markets, meanwhile, continue to suffer from fears that Europe
won't contain its debt woes.
"The worry is that Ireland won't mark the end of the eurozone
crisis and with the economies of Portugal and Spain looking less
than robust, markets are worried that we could be talking about
potential bailouts once again in the not-too-distant future,"
Ben Critchley, sales trader at IG Index, tells the Associated
Press.
European Central Bank policymaker Christian Noyer sought to
bolster market confidence in the eurozone's rescue for Ireland,
telling cagey investors they should have faith in the plan's
success.
Noyer, the first member of the ECB's policy council to speak
after eurozone ministers sealed the loan package for Ireland on
Sunday, said he was confident the deal would bring down Dublin's
borrowing costs to more normal levels.
"There is no reason to doubt the recovery plans of the two
countries," Noyer said in a speech in Tokyo, referring to
Ireland and Greece.
But market reaction showed investors thought the crisis that
started with Greece's budget blow-out more than a year ago was
far from over.
"I don't think this is going to be a silver bullet. I think
there are still going to be some question marks on Portugal and
Spain," said Peter Westaway, chief economist at brokers Nomura.
One of the questions that has been dogging markets for weeks and
helped drive Ireland off the cliff was whether and under what
circumstances private bondholders could be made to take losses,
or "haircuts," on eurozone government debt.
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