Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2010 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1124 (N14W30) produced a
C2/Sf event at 15/0728Z. This region has grown in area and number
of spots throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next 3 days (16-18 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a slight chance for
an isolated period of minor storming over the next 3 days (16-18
November). This activity is forecast because of elevated solar wind
speeds near 650 km/s and intermittent periods of southward Bz, as
well as a possible glancing blow from the CME on 13 November.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 091
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 012/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/50/50
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |
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