Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2010 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Visible active regions
remained stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind  speed has increased to
about 550 km/s over the past 24 hours. Observations suggest that
this increase is in response to a high-speed stream associated with
coronal hole number 78 in the northwest hemisphere. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 087
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  086/084/084
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales