Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2010 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C1 flare was observed at
01/0443Z from Region 1117 (N22, L=063) as it rotated around the west
limb. Region 1120 (N39E41) has been quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on day one (02 November). Very low conditions are
expected on days two and three (03 - 04 November) as Region 1117
rotates off the solar disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for active conditions during the next three days (02 - 04 November).
The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    15/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 079
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  078/078/078
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  007/008-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales