Monday, 11 Oct 2010 09:03 AM
By: Sean Hyman
This past weekend, the G-7 finance ministers and IMF
(International Monetary Fund) both met in Washington.
As usual, taxpayers wasted a great deal of money getting all of
these guys together because they ended the meetings with no more
direction than when they started.
The most some of them could agree upon was that the IMF needed
to act as a “currency cop” of sorts among all of the member
countries’ currencies to see if anyone was giving themselves a
distinct advantage by cheapening their currency.
It’s really hard to get one government to work together and
agree on issues, much less seven of them (or even the group of
20 nations).
At this weekend’s meeting, it seemed that everyone played the
blame game. Of course, the usual happened too. The U.S. and
Europe continued to place pressure upon China to strengthen its
currency.
Just to put some numbers to it, the yen has risen against the
dollar by 11 percent this year, but China’s yuan has only risen
by just under 3 percent at the same time.
If you’re a business in the U.S. and you want to get the
greatest value that you can, all things being equal, are you
going to buy from Japan or China? China, of course, since your
currency goes further in buying goods there instead of in the
“more expensive” Japan that has the same goods.
So this gives China a huge edge over Japan that the U.S. is
working diligently to stop. However, China is China and that
country will value its currency up higher when it gets good and
ready. There’s not much that the U.S. is going to do about it .
. . or it would have already done it.
There was a time when the U.S. could throw its weight around
more. However, that day was long before China got its claws into
us by holding so much of our Treasury debt. Since then, China
holds more power than one might like to think.
There’s a wise old Bible verse that says “the rich rule over the
poor and the debtor is slave to the lender.” Well, in this
picture I guess you can figure out who the debtor is (the U.S.)
and who the lender is (China).
You see, there are two ways to take over a country. You can go
to war (and that’s the costliest and bloodiest way). The other
way is you can get them grossly indebted to you. The debtor is
always subject to the lender. Truer words have never been
spoken. It’s true on an individual level. It’s true on a
corporate level (just as Visa and MasterCard . . . or your local
bank). And it’s true with nations, too!
So China will continue to do what it wants to, as long as it
holds as much of our U.S. Treasury debt as it does.
Also, since the meeting ended with the IMF-member countries
coming to no real conclusions, it gave currency traders the
green light to stick with the trends that have pressured these
countries for months now.
This gives the dollar the green light to fall and it gives
emerging market currencies the green light to continue to head
higher.
So this currency war is going to get even more interesting in
the weeks and months ahead.
By the way, mark your calendars for the upcoming meeting of the
G-7 in Seoul, Korea where their central bankers will discuss
this issue further. This will take place on Nov. 11-12.
Once again, at what’s being called a “Leaders’ Summit,” we’ll
get the chance to see if taxpayers wasted their money on
high-end jets and lavish hotel rooms and meals. I guess we’ll
see if we’ve got any “real” leaders after all once we see what
the outcome of this meeting is.
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