Heating costs expected to rise in northwestern Pa.

Oct 19 - Erie Times-News, Pa.

The first snowflake hasn't even flown, and already there's bad news about winter: The U.S. Energy Information Administration is predicting Americans will spend more to heat their homes this year.

The EIA is predicting winter heating bills will increase by an average of 3 percent, raising the average bill by $24 to $986 per household.

In large part, however, the size of the increase will depend on the source of the fuel.

The EIA is predicting the most substantial price increase will hit homeowners who heat with propane, which is expected to rise 11 percent compared with the winter of 2009-10.

Nationally, electric prices are expected to rise just 2 percent. But locally, with a 24-year-old rate cap set to expire Jan. 1, electricity-generation rates are forecast to rise 18 to 19 percent.

But the effect on home heating costs could be more modest than those numbers would suggest.

After peaking about 20 years ago, the number of homes in northwestern Pennsylvania that heat with electricity has continued to decline, said Scott Surgeoner, a spokesman for First Energy Corp., parent company of Penelec.

Today, he said, the number of electrically heated homes is comparatively small.

Prices for home heating oil, which is popular in Crawford County, is expected to be up 11 percent this winter.

In Erie County, where more than 80 percent of all homes are heated with natural gas, the cost of winter heating will likely rise or fall on the price of that commodity.

At $10.42 per thousand cubic feet, National Fuel Gas Distribution Corp.'s current price is 16.1 percent higher than it was at this time in 2009. That price, which the utility passes directly on to consumers, is set to be readjusted Nov. 1.

Nancy Taylor, a spokeswoman for the utility, said she can't predict what, if any, price adjustment might be coming.

But she did say both the spot market and winter gas prices have been declining. And while natural-gas prices have traditionally risen and fallen with crude oil prices, Taylor doesn't expect that will be the case this winter.

The EIA reports that a milder overall winter forecast is the reason projected household heating costs are expected to rise more than the corresponding fuel prices.

That's not the case, however, in the northeastern United States, where the weather is expected to be colder than usual.

JIM MARTIN can be reached at 870-1668 or by e-mail.

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