Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2010 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Regions
1112 (S18W00) and 1113 (N17E63) each produced isolated low-level
B-class flares. New Region 1114 (S22W41), a single-spot A-type, was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (15 - 17 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (15 -
17 October) due to weak CME effects from a filament eruption on 11
October.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 080
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  080/080/082
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  007/007-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales