Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2010 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22W02)
produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance of C-class flares from region 1117 or
Region 1115 (S30W64).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speeds observed at the ACE spacecraft remained at or above 600 km/s
for most of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (26 October) due to
coronal hole effects. Days two and three (27 - 28 October) should be
at mostly quiet levels as the coronal hole effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 086
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  084/082/080
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  008/010-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales