The Widening Turnout Gap
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The Democrats are without a theme, a message or a positive reason to go vote. Negative ads are supposed to depress turnout -- the last thing Democrats need. But when they come up against Republican enthusiasm, they may not do much to check the GOP rise. |
But advertising is not the central
event of the 2010 elections. Mass rallies and one-on-one soliciting are
the keys to the outcome. Between the Tea Party groups and Americans for
Prosperity, there is a vast army of conservatives bringing the GOP
message to the streets of America.
And the Republicans are just gearing up to turn out their voters. I have
collaborated with Citizens United -- whose Supreme Court case so roiled
the Democrats -- to produce an election-themed movie titled "Battle for
America" (www.battleforamericamovie.com). With Newt Gingrich, Ann
Coulter and Fred Barnes, we describe how crucial are the stakes in this
coming election. This film and others are spreading like wildfire
through the ranks of the Tea Party groups and are being shown in tens of
thousands of homes throughout the nation to the friends, families and
neighbors of activists.
Republicans realize that our entire way of life and national idea is at
stake in the 2010 elections. The radicalism of the Obama agenda and the
mindless complicity of House and Senate Democrats who didn't even read
the bills they were passing have left a sense that America as we know it
is on the line.
The regimented ranks of labor-union members enlisted by their leaders to
turn out for Democratic candidates cannot compete with the fired-up
intensity of the Republican grass roots. Democrats have gotten lazy and
lethargic. The prolongation of the war in Afghanistan and the residual
U.S. military presence in Iraq have sapped the left of its vitriol and
undermined its faith in Obama. The new-left groups can't gin up the
enthusiasm they could in 2006 and 2008. It's easier to attack than to
defend.
When polls show Republicans even with their Democratic opponents, the
GOP will win. Undecided voters generally go against the incumbents, and
the vast difference in voter enthusiasm will tilt these races to the
Republican challengers.
Prediction: The Republicans will win the Senate, capturing seats in
Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, West
Virginia, Washington state, Illinois and Nevada. And they could prevail
in New York, Connecticut, Delaware and California to boot.
The GOP will capture the House by a goodly margin, winning upward of
60-plus seats now held by Democrats. And it could go a lot higher!