Wednesday, 29 Sep 2010 09:13 AM
By: Robert Wiedemer
“They” is Ben Bernanke and his Federal Reserve Board.
Of course, the headline is a statement that many people would
agree with — it’s the nature of the Fed.
But there is something specific I am talking about in regard to
the recennt announcement that the Fed may begin permanent
quantitative easing (QE) operations in the next few months.
Again, quantitative easing is the Fed’s feel good term for
printing money by buying bonds.
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They say that the “shock and awe” approach of buying lots of
bonds quickly, as they did in 2009, is not the right way to
boost the economy going forward.
The right way is to make more limited purchases of maybe $100
billion a month and then review the policy at each Fed meeting.
Let’s put that number in perspective.
Before the financial crisis, our entire money supply (as defined
by the monetary base) was about $800 billion.
Now they are proposing that, after buying almost $1.7 trillion
worth of bonds since 2008, they will start buying maybe another
trillion dollars a year. That’s a doubling of our 2008 money
supply. And maybe they will keep doing it for another year.
Printing money without end. Wow.
What is prompting such an extraordinary and unprecedented action
by the Fed?
Is it the collapse of the financial and stock markets that
prompted the earlier purchases?
No. According to the Fed, it is simply that the economy isn’t
growing fast enough.
The current 2 percent or 2.5 percent growth rate just isn’t good
enough and since Congress no longer seems willing to borrow much
more money to boost the economy, the job now falls to the Fed to
print money to boost the economy.
But why is it so critical to have a growth rate of more than 2
percent? Why such an extraordinary action just to boost a
slow-growing economy? Do they know something more than they are
saying?
What makes it even stranger is that only a few months ago, the
Fed was talking about its exit plan — how it was going to sell
off or reduce its bond holdings to reduce the threat from
inflation due to the massive increases in the money supply they
are causing.
Why such a big change?
Again, do they know something more than they are saying?
Few people are asking why the Fed is making such a radical
change and taking such a radical action as printing on a
continuous basis just to boost a slow economy.
They either buy into what the Fed is saying or they are hoping
it will boost the stock market and don’t care.
Honestly, I am surprised a bit by the Fed’s plan and have said
earlier that the Fed would not take a large action, such as
buying another $1 trillion or $2 trillion, unless we had a big
collapse in the stock market (a loss of 2,000 points or so) that
threatened to disrupt the financial markets again.
Outside of a big drop in the stock market, I thought they might
print another few hundred billion dollars to boost investor
confidence and that’s it.
I wouldn’t think they would make a policy of long-term permanent
printing of massive amounts of money. It’s a bit drastic for the
Fed.
But listening to the Fed, you’d almost have thought somebody
there had read "Aftershock," or at least part of it. The part
that says we have a number of asset bubbles in stock, real
estate, private credit and consumer spending.
And, as one bubble pops, it will put more pressure on the other
bubbles, thus further pushing down the economy. Maybe the Fed is
seeing we still have some big bubbles in the stock and
real-estate markets and is scared to death they will pop
further.
Hence, it is trying to do everything it can to keep that from
happening. They don’t talk about a bubble economy, but they sure
are acting like we have one.
Trying to increase our growth above 2 percent isn’t very
important to the short-term economy, but trying to keep the
bubbles inflated sure is.
And maybe they know it. Printing massive amounts of money is
their only tool to keep bubbles inflated.
Of course, they seem to be overlooking the other part of the
book that says printing money will put increasing pressure on
the dollar bubble and pop that bubble too. Maybe they are hoping
that they can keep the other bubbles from popping, while not
putting too much pressure on the dollar bubble. Past printing
hasn’t caused a lot of inflation right away, so it must be OK to
print more, right?
One thing’s for sure, they know a lot more than they’re saying.
Their words are soothing, but their actions speak loudly of a
bubble economy they are desperately trying to protect.
And, of course, long term, they are taking exactly the actions
that will guarantee it will pop.
About the Author:
Robert Wiedemer
Robert Wiedemer is president of the Foresight Group, a
macroeconomic forecasting firm that customizes its forecasts for
specific businesses and investment funds. He is a regular
contributor to Financial Intelligence Report, the flagship
investment newsletter of Newsmax Media.
Click
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