US Beige Book, Economic Activity Continued to Grow at a Modest Pace
Location: Toronto
Author:
RBC Financial Group Economics Department
Date: Thursday, October
21, 2010
10/20/10 - The Fed’s Beige Book report,
compiled using data collected on or before October 8, 2010 in
preparation for the November 2-3 FOMC meeting, characterized U.S.
economic activity as continuing to grow, “albeit at a modest pace.”
Eight Districts reported some form of growth, while the other four
reported that their economies experienced mixed results or were
decelerating.
- Consumer spending was “flat to moderately positive” in most
Districts, while two noted declining traffic and sales. Retailers
said consumer confidence is slowly returning, but noted that
shoppers remain price-conscious and purchases were largely limited
to necessities.
- Manufacturing activity continued to expand, with most Districts
reporting gains in production or new orders across a wide range of
industries. Two Districts, however, reported generally softer
activity in the period.
- Housing markets continue to remain weak, with most Districts
reporting sales below year-ago levels; however, prices generally
held stable since the last report. Some concern was expressed by
homebuilders regarding rising foreclosures and bank-owned homes
coming to market. Commercial real estate activity “remained subdued”
and respondents appeared to believe that the sector would remain
weak for some time.
- Lending activity was reported to be “stable at low levels”
across most districts. Credit quality was “changed little on
balance” since the last report.
- With respect to labour markets, the report noted that the hiring
“remained limited,” with firms reluctant to hire permanent workers
given “economic softness.” As a result of these persistently weak
labour market conditions, wage pressures “remained minimal,” with
most Districts reporting “little evidence of wage increases in
general.”
- Prices of final goods and services were stable across Districts
despite input costs (particularly agricultural commodities and
industrial metals) rising slightly.
Today’s Beige Book report provides anecdotal evidence of the “modest”
pace of growth of the U.S. economy, and indicates that hiring “remained
limited” and prices pressures subdued as “pass-through of rising input
costs remained limited.” Against this backdrop, we not only expect that
the current range for the Fed funds target will be maintained until late
into 2011, but also that the Fed will engage in another round of assets
purchases starting as soon as November in an effort to ensure that the
recovery continues and inflation returns to levels that are consistent
with the Fed’s mandate.
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