Thursday, 07 Oct 2010 07:04 AM
The United States must preserve confidence in the dollar even
as it looks at ways to combat the sluggish economy, Paul
Volcker, a special economics adviser to U.S. President Barack
Obama, said Wednesday.
The former Federal Reserve chairman said it is difficult to find
any sector of the U.S. economy that has any "spark," and
authorities should be examining what fiscal and monetary tools
they have available.
"The challenge now is we have intervened, it becomes more and
more difficult in the future, the monetary policy ... the fiscal
policy. We sure have to maintain some confidence in the dollar
or none of this would work," Volcker, who is chairman of the
President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, told a business
audience in Toronto.
"Some people would say there's no possibility of a further
stimulus program, but the risk is of course that would make
things worse and you're going get a reaction that's
unmanageable."
The dollar on Wednesday tumbled to a 15-year low against the yen
and an eight-month trough against the euro on expectations the
Federal Reserve will further ease monetary policy to jump-start
the economy.
Volcker declined to comment on whether Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
should ease monetary policy further, though he said it is the
kind of debate Fed officials ought to be having.
The Fed has kept interest rates near zero since December 2008
and pumped $1.7 trillion into the financial system through
purchases of longer-term Treasury securities and
mortgage-related debt.
Most analysts expect the U.S. central bank will launch a renewed
round of bond buying, or quantitative easing, as soon as its
next policy meeting on Nov. 2-3.
Volcker painted a bleak outlook for the U.S. economy, saying it
was hard to find any kind of development that promises to
produce a lot of expansionary momentum "in coming months, in
coming quarters, even in coming years."
"It's very unlike an ordinary recession. This has not been an
ordinary recession. This is an important shift in economic
affairs around the world and it's going to take some time to get
over it," he said. "We all face a problem of prolonged
unemployment in the developed world."
Still, Volcker said that over time the United States must reduce
consumption relative to production as a percentage of its
economy and bring down its current account deficit.
Known for slaying inflation in the 1980s by hiking interest
rates well into the double digits, Volcker said the rise of the
price of gold to a record high was partly due to inflation
fears, but he noted that inflation fears were not being
reflected in bond markets.
"The markets for bonds and inflation-protected bonds don't show
that at all. There is a lot of concern about possibly returning
to inflation," he said. "I think it's reflected in the gold
price."
Gold on Wednesday rose to a record high for a second straight
day.
"I can't fully explain this dichotomy," Volcker said, "but I
think part of it is the gold market after all is not a very big
market."

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