A perfect storm of economic reversals, including Friday's
news that August unemployment rose to 9.6 percent, has pushed
Democrats to the brink of losing both the Senate and the House
in the midterm elections, leading political analysts say.
For the first time, the nation's top political analysts are
agreeing that a complete GOP takeover of Congress is now
plausible.
The University of Virginia's Larry J. Sabato rocked the
inside-the-Beltway crowd this week with his projection that
Republicans now have a solid shot at capturing 50 seats in the
Senate.
"The direction at this point is very clear," Sabato tells
Newsmax. "It is a Republican year. The primary reason is the
weak economy, overwhelmingly so, in fact. And the economy isn't
going to turn around fast enough to erase GOP gains on Nov. 2."
Sabato writes in his widely followed Crystal Ball report that
Democrats' self-proclaimed "Recovery Summer" has "become a term
of derision." He adds that most voters feel President Obama "has
over-promised and under-delivered."
Sabato, who once believed Republicans would score a net gain of
at most seven seats in November, now says eight and possibly
nine seats are realistic numbers.
Picking up the 10 seats needed for outright control, he says, is
an "outside shot" — but possible.
A gain of nine seats would be enough to throw the Senate into a
50-50 deadlock. Unfortunately for Republicans, tie-breaking
votes in the Senate are cast by the Senate president, Vice
President Joe Biden.
But Sabato, the author of "The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama
Won the White House," sees a way Republicans could seize
outright control of the Senate even they fall short of a 10-seat
net gain in the midterms.
If Republicans can win nine seats, he says, then
conservative-leaning senators who caucus with the Democrats may
be tempted to switch parties — as moderates of both parties
often do.
Writes Sabato: "It will be interesting to see how senators such
as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and
others react."
Sabato isn't the only nationally respected analyst upping his
estimate of GOP's chances of winning control of both houses
because of the weak economy.
Charlie Cook, the nonpartisan political handicapper who writes
the Cook Political Report, had projected a GOP pick-up of four
to six Senate seats in November. He now projects Republicans
will gain seven to nine seats, and concedes there's a "plausible
argument" that Republicans could gain 10.
Democratic pollster and Fox News commentator Douglas Schoen, who
has been warning since March that the GOP could grab both
chambers, tells Newsmax: "We are now being vindicated.
Healthcare was the precipitating factor in Democrats' decline."
He also suggested that Democrats could reverse their slide, but
only if they are willing to alter their current economic
policies.
"Democrats need a bold new economic agenda focusing on job
creation through extension of Bush tax cuts for all, and a
broad-based payroll tax holiday, as well as aid to small
businesses," Schoen says.
There was no indication Friday that Democratic leaders are
reconsidering their stimulus-oriented approach to fixing the
economy, however, as President Obama delivered a statement on
the economy from the Rose Garden.
After Obama blamed Republican leaders for not backing a loan
program for small-businesses, one reporter asked him whether he
regretted the so-called "Recovery Summer."
"I don't regret the notion that we are moving forward, but
because of the steps that we've taken," Obama said.
Not all the news from Friday's jobs report was bad. Although the
economy lost more than 54,000 jobs overall, most of the job
losses were in the public sector. Private-sector employers
actually added 76,000 jobs.
Economists estimate, however, that it takes between 200,000 and
250,000 new jobs each month to really improve unemployment.
Despite the steady drumbeat of dreary economic data, Sabato
thinks a 10-seat net gain in the Senate is still probably
optimistic. But he adds, "If the Republican wave on Nov. 2 is as
large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise
on election night could be a full GOP takeover."
He cites a statistic that should sound a serious note of trouble
for Democrats.
"Since World War II," Sabato wrote, "the House of
Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946,
1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006).
"Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been
predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law
of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency."
Sabato sees six Senate seats as tossups that could still go to
either party. Of those, Florida is the only tossup seat that a
Republican holds now. The other Senate seats up for grabs are
California, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin, he
says.
© Newsmax. All rights reserved. To subscribe or visit go to:
http://www.moneynews.com