Thursday, 02 Sep 2010 07:45 PM
By: David A. Patten
The chance that Israel will launch a pre-emptive attack on
Iran's rogue nuclear-weapons facilities is now 50-50 and appears
to be rising steadily, says Middle East expert and award-winning
journalist Arnaud de Borchgrave.
"I think it is, as of now, a 50-50 proposition," de Borchgrave
tells Newsmax.TV in an exclusive interview. "It seems to be
moving up the ladder."
De Borchgrave has warned that international sanctions won't be
enough to encourage Iran's theocrats to relinquish their nuclear
ambitions. But he tells Newsmax that the leaders of several
Persian Gulf nations have said privately they would welcome a
U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear-enrichment sites.
"Everybody is very concerned about a nuclear Iran," he says. "If
you talk to some of the leaders up and down the Persian Gulf off
the record — they'll never say that on the record — some of them
are hoping the Iranian nuclear facilities will be taken out by
U.S. bombers.
"And that to my way of thinking is inconceivable under the Obama
administration. But what is quite conceivable is that the
Israelis would go ahead and do it on their own.
If Israel does launch an attack, de Borchgrave said, the Obama
administration would almost certainly oppose it. But it would
have to be very cautious about condemning Israel for the action,
because of growing sentiment in Congress supporting Israel's
right to defend itself.
De Borchgrave, who spent 25 years as chief foreign correspondent
for Newsweek magazine, is a senior fellow at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, an editor-at-large at
United Press International and The Washington Times, and a
Newsmax contributor.
Any effort to bring peace between Israel and Palestinians would
face a "very tough road ahead," the foreign affairs expert tells
Newsmax.
"There is one of course very simple solution — one suggested by
the king of Saudi Arabia back in 2002, when he got all of the
Arab friends, 21 nations, to agree to sign an immediate peace
treaty with Israel and have normal diplomatic relations and
economic relations, provided that Israel go back to the 1967
borders, that meaning the borders before the 1967 war. And that
of course to Israel is unacceptable."
Asked for his reaction to Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's
suggestion that Israel may be willing to divide Jerusalem,
allowing the eastern part of the city to be under Palestinian
control, de Borchgrave said: "Well, every little advance is
significant in the overall context of hopefully a peace treaty
between the two sides . . . And the fact that one important
Israeli cabinet minister says that parts of East Jerusalem could
be given up is obviously very significant."
But de Borchgrave said Palestinians will insist on massive
relocation of Jewish settlers out of the West Bank.
"There are today about 300,000 Jewish settlers in 140
settlements in the West Bank, which should be of course a
Palestinian state. And it's really hard to image that 300,000
Jews would agree to live under Palestinian sovereignty," he
says. "So most of those would have to come out, except for the
major settlements that are now on the Israeli side of the wall
that's been built, the separation of the Palestinians and
Israelis, which takes up about 12 percent of the Palestinian
territories."
Other highlights from the exclusive Newsmax.TV interview:
- Any Palestinian state would need to be self sustaining
and viable. Water rights currently controlled by the
Israelis would have to be negotiated, as would the depth of
the security zone between the two nations. NATO or U.S.
troops would likely be employed to keep the peace near the
Jordan River.
- The mission in Iraq is not over, and it not clear the
United States has won. Iran actually has more influence in
Iraq today than when the war began.
- The furor against the ground zero mosque, which is
actually two blocks from ground zero and is mostly a
community center, is a mistake. He says the facility should
go forward, as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg has
recommended.
- China is "feeling its way" as an emerging superpower,
and isn't looking to the United States for guidance or
advice on how to proceed.
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