By Alex Lawler
LONDON |
Thu Sep 9, 2010 5:22pm IST
(Reuters) - World demand for OPEC's oil will be lower
than expected this year and next due to a slowing economic
recovery and higher supplies from non-member countries, the
group said on Thursday.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in
a monthly report, also left its forecasts unchanged for
global growth in oil demand this year and in 2011 but said
the winding-down of government measures to stimulate
economies could weigh on consumption in the next few months.
"Oil demand could weaken over the remainder of this
year," said the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, which is
written by economists at the group's Vienna headquarters.
"In fact, the impact of the slowing economic recovery on
oil demand is already evident as growth in oil consumption
is slowing down and has even turned negative in some parts
of the world."
The report underscores the cautious view on oil
consumption taken by OPEC, whose demand growth estimates are
lower than those of other closely watched forecasters such
as the International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents
consumers, and the U.S. government.
OPEC expects world oil demand to rise by 1.05 million
barrels per day in 2010 to average 85.51 million bpd and to
expand by the same amount in 2011, the report said. The
growth forecasts were unchanged from last month.
By contrast, the U.S. government's Energy Information
Administration on Wednesday raised its forecast for the
expansion in world oil demand this year, projecting a rise
of 1.62 million bpd.
The IEA, which expects consumption to expand by 1.8
million bpd in 2010, is scheduled to issue its latest
forecasts on Friday.
LOWER DEMAND
Oil prices showed little initial reaction to the OPEC
report. U.S. crude was up 41 cents at $75.08 a barrel as of
1049 GMT.
Demand for OPEC crude will average 28.65 million barrels
per day (bpd) in 2010, the report said. That is down about
100,000 bpd from last month's forecast.
The report trimmed next year's forecast to 28.84 million
bpd, also down about 100,000 bpd from last month.
The 12 OPEC members produce more than a third of the
world's oil supply.
OPEC said supplies from non-OPEC countries would rise by
920,000 bpd in 2010 to average 52.06 million bpd. The growth
is up 130,000 bpd from last month due to
higher-than-expected supply from the United States and
Britain.
The group also bumped up its estimate of non-OPEC supply
in 2011 to 52.42 million bpd, up 150,000 bpd from last
month.
(Editing by Barbara Lewis and Jane Baird)