Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2010 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. Region 1105 (N19W90)
produced a long duration C3 x-ray event at 08/2333Z with an
associated west limb CME. Observations from the SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3
imagery indicates the CME is not earth directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (10-12 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated a solar
wind speed enhancement to around 450 km/s during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on days one and two (10-11
September). Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a slight chance for
an isolated active period, is expected for day three (12 September),
as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 074
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep  074/075/075
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales