Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2010 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels. A slight chance for C-class activity is
possible from Region 1106 (S19E44) for the next three days (14 - 16
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two (14 - 15
September). Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated high
latitude active periods, are possible on day three (16 September)
due to the combined effects from the 11 September CME and a weak
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 080
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 080/080/081
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/25
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/30
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales