Worst Over in Global Poll Pointing to Reduced Market Returns

Location: New York
Author: Kristin Swenson
Date: Thursday, September 23, 2010

Three out of five global investors (59%) say the world economy has weathered the financial crisis and has stabilized two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Few believe the economy is recovering, with only one in six of those surveyed (17%) describing it as expanding, according to a global quarterly poll of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Forty-one percent aren’t convinced the financial situation is stable and say further turbulence is likely.

There are still danger spots, including the threat of government defaults, respondents say. Over the last three months, the percentage of those who say it’s likely Ireland will default more than doubled to 37 percent, according to the poll, conducted on Sept. 16-17. Still, a majority see this as unlikely.

Investors are responding to the economic environment by managing their money conservatively, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. More than 40 percent are still hunkering down, while one in three (34%) are taking more risks. The rest say they are getting back to normal. Those percentages were little changed from the last poll in June.

Europe is seen as a weak link in the world economy. More than three-quarters of those surveyed (77%) see a risk that the eurozone may dissolve eventually, and more than 20 percent of those describe such a threat as looming. That’s a more pessimistic take than in June, when a majority said the currency union would remain intact.

European investors are the most optimistic about the chances of avoiding a breakup of the eurozone; U.S. investors the least.

Greece is still seen as the country most likely to default on its debt, with just over two-thirds of investors surveyed (67%) seeing that as probable. That’s down from the 73 percent who said they felt that way in June.

Among asset classes, commodities have gained the most in popularity among investors since the last poll. About one in three of those surveyed (32%) said commodities will offer the highest return over the next year. In June, 23 percent said that.

Stocks are still seen as the number one investment over the next year, with 36 percent of those contacted saying equities will offer the highest return, little changed from June.

Almost half of investors surveyed (49%) see the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rising over the next six months, versus 28 percent who predict it will fall. Pluralities of more than 35 percent forecast that the Euro Stoxx 50 Index and FTSE index will be higher in six months time.

The S&P index has risen almost 2.5 percent this year. The Euro Stoxx 50 index has fallen 5.5 percent, while the FTSE 100 Index has risen 3.5 percent.

Government bonds are seen as the worst investment for the coming year. Almost half of those polled (49%) said they felt that way, up from 36 percent in June.

Real estate also fared poorly in the poll, with one in four investors (24%) saying that would be the asset class with the worst return in the coming year.

The full story is online at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-21/worst-over-for-investors-in-global-poll-pointing-to-reduced-market-returns.html.