Analysis of US EIA data: Cushing crude stocks rise to record high
New York - March 30, 2011
Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma – delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contracts – hit an all-time high of 41.886 million barrels, up 1.689 million barrels, for the week ending March 25, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday.
This analysis and commentary is provided by Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Futures and Derivatives Review, a supplement to Oilgram Price Report.
Total US crude stocks were up 2.945 million barrels; analysts polled by Platts projected a 2.2-million-barrel build.
At 355.712 million barrels, US crude stocks were 14.058 million barrels greater than the five-year average and 1.523 million barrels more than year-ago levels.
Crude stocks in the Midwest, where Cushing is located, increased 1.154 million barrels, suggesting inventories in the northern part of the region declined. Crude stocks on the Gulf Coast rose 712,000 barrels to 172.541 million barrels.
The overall stock build was aided by a 141,000-barrels-per-day (b/d) climb in imports to 9.128 million b/d. Gross inputs to refineries were unchanged.
In counter-seasonal fashion, stocks of middle distillates increased 712,000 barrels; analysts polled by Platts expected a draw of 1.4 million barrels.
At 153.325 million barrels, US stocks of middle distillates were 25.204 million barrels greater than the five-year average and 8.719 million barrels more than year-ago levels.
The increase in middle distillates was concentrated in ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD), which rose 713,000 barrels to 107.939 million barrels. Stocks of heating oil dropped 828,000 barrels to 35.198 million barrels, in line with seasonal tendencies.
The only product to undergo a noticeable drop week over week was gasoline, which fell 2.684 million barrels to 217.036 million barrels. Gasoline stocks were 361,000 barrels higher than the five-year average, but 7.836 million barrels less than year-ago levels.
While inventories of propane and propylene and "other oils" were essentially unchanged, stocks of jet and residual fuel oil were higher.
Total US product stocks rose 384,000 barrels to 686.407 million barrels, the first product inventories increase in seven weeks.
Fueling the inventory build was a 705,000-barrel drop in US oil demand, with declines occurring for every product except residual fuel oil. At 18.605 million b/d, US implied demand* was 416,000 b/d less than the same week of 2010.
The four-week moving average of 19.174 million b/d is 37,000 b/d below year-ago levels. But historically, the second quarter is typically the slowest demand quarter of a year.
Imports of both gasoline and middle distillates rebounded for the latest reporting week. Gasoline imports climbed 189,000 b/d to 884,000 b/d, a relatively low level given implied demand of 8.866 million b/d.
Imports of middle distillates rose 51,000 b/d to 243,000 b/d. One downward pressure on overall imports – which fell 189,000 b/d to 2.39 million b/d – was a sharp drop in "other oils," which fell 502,000 b/d to 637,000 b/d.
*Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the US distribution system, not actual end consumption.
*Editor’s Note: Linda Rafield’s commentary is based on her knowledge of market trends, information from industry sources, and her own views as a long-time energy analyst. If you require any additional information or would like to interview Linda Rafield, please e-mail Kathleen Tanzy.
# # #
About Platts: Platts, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information. With a century of business experience, Platts serves customers across more than 150 countries. An independent provider, Platts serves the oil, natural gas, electricity, emissions, nuclear power, coal, petrochemicals, shipping, and metals markets from 17 offices worldwide. Platts' real-time news, pricing, analytical services and conferences help markets operate with transparency and efficiency.Traders, risk managers, analysts, and industry leaders depend upon Platts to help them make better business decisions.
About The McGraw-Hill Companies:: Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill Companies is a leading global financial information and education company that helps professionals and students succeed in the Knowledge Economy. Leading brands include Standard & Poor’s, McGraw-Hill Education, Platts energy information services and J.D. Power and Associates. The Corporation has approximately 21,000 employees with more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Sales in 2010 were $6.2 billion. Additional information is available at www.mcgraw-hill.com.
To subscribe or visit go to: http://www.platts.com
