Asia energy demand to double to 9 bil mtoe by 2035 - outlook

Tokyo (Platts)--18Apr2011/552 am EDT/952 GMT

Asia's energy demand will more than double to 9 billion mt oil equivalent in 2035 from 4.3 billion mtoe in 2008, according to the first oil supply and demand outlook for Asia and the Middle East, which was presented Monday by the Japanese government to the 4th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable in Kuwait.

China is set to account for 42% of the region's total primary energy demand in 2035, down slightly from 44% in 2008, while India's share is seen rising to 18% from 11%, according to the presentation materials obtained by Platts.

The Middle East is expected to account for 13%, down slightly from 14% in 2008.

The Japanese government took responsibility for putting together the first oil supply and demand outlook for the Asia and Middle East region at the last ministerial meeting in Tokyo in April 2009.

Hideichi Okada, Japan's Vice-Minister for International Affairs at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, presented the results of the joint study with input from 18 member countries of the Asian oil producers and consumers meeting in Kuwait City.

Although the study does not reflect the implications of the earthquake which struck Japan March 11, oil and gas demand in the country is only likely to rise as it is forced to make up the shortfall in nuclear generation by increasing the use of hydrocarbon fuels in the short- to mid-term, according to a Platts analysis.

Of the total energy demand, Asia's oil demand will rise to 2.6 billion mtoe in 2035, up 85.7% from 1.4 billion mtoe in 2008, with gas demand in the region rising to 1.9 billion mtoe in 2035, up nearly three times from 0.7 billion mtoe in 2008.

In China, oil consumption is forecast to nearly triple to 907 million mtoe in 2035, from 367 million mtoe in 2008, and its transport sector will account for 56% of oil demand in 2035, the study shows.

Oil consumption in India will also be 2.6 times higher at 377 million mtoe in 2035 compared with 145 million mtoe in 2008.

Asia's net oil import volumes will more than double to 33.9 million b/d in 2035 from 14.3 million b/d in 2008 because of the expected steep rise of demand and stagnating oil production within the region, while import dependency for oil supply will rise to 81% in 2035, up from 64% in 2008, according to the study.

The study also notes that "timely investment" is needed to increase energy supply for overall supply chain" to meet robust energy demand in Asia, but the region, in particular the Middle East, has "sufficient energy resource potential" to meet the energy demand growth in the future.

On the supply side, oil production from OPEC is forecast to rise to 50.7 million b/d, up 46.1% from its output level of around 34.7 million b/d in 2008 based on an assumption that Iraq will contribute "strong growth" in its production after 2020, it said.

Non-OPEC production from the the Middle East region, however, is expected to hover at around 1.6 million b/d towards 2035, virtually unchanged from the output level in 2008, it said.

Oil production in Asia is forecast to increase to 8.7 million b/d by around 2020, from 8.1 million b/d in 2008, but gradually decrease to 8.1 million b/d in 2035, it added.

Okada also updated the meeting on Japan's efforts to restore its energy infrastructure in the northeast of the country following the March 11 earthquake. Okada explained the status of Japan's ongoing efforts to restore its earthquake-hit thermal power facilities as well as Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant in the northeast.

Japan's METI minister Banri Kaieda did not attending the Kuwait City ministerial meeting as he was involved in handling the country's ongoing nuclear crisis.

--Takeo Kumagai, takeo_kumagai@platts.com

To subscribe or visit go to:  http://www.platts.com