EIA ANALYSIS: Crude stocks soar on surging imports
New York (Platts)--27Apr2011/333 pm EDT/1933 GMT
US crude stocks rose a larger-than-expected 6.156 million barrels to
363.125 million barrels as imports surged 1.213 million b/d to 9.266
million b/d the week ending April 22, an analysis of the oil data
released Wednesday by the US Energy information Administration showed.
Analysts polled by Platts had projected a build of 1.6 million barrels.
At 363.125 million barrels, US crude stocks were 16.182 million barrels
above the five-year average and 5.305 million barrels above year-ago
levels.
The only region where crude stocks fell was the Midwest where stocks
edged down 482,000 barrels to 105.837 million barrels with a drop of
142,000 b/d in imports to 1.146 million b/d behind the decline in
inventories.
Stocks at the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma fell 738,000
barrels to 40.388 million barrels, the second consecutive decline in
that region.
Inputs to refineries were essentially unchanged at 14.629 million b/d,
leaving imports as the primary driver of the inventory-build.
But import data can be erratic. On a four-week moving average, crude
imports at 8.71 million b/d were 724,000 b/d below the same four weeks
in 2010.
While crude continued to pile up, product inventories trended lower,
falling 3.247 million barrels to 670.455 million barrels. This is the
lowest level since October 2008 that US product stocks have been.
Product stocks were 3.915 million barrels below the five-year average
and 44.631 million barrels below year-ago levels.
Within products, gasoline inventories dropped another 2.508 million
barrels to 205.588 million barrels while stocks of middle distillates
declined 1.805 million barrels to 146.530 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks have now cumulatively declined 35.508 million barrels
over the past 10 weeks, leaving inventories 3.049 million barrels below
the five-year average and 18.097 million barrels below year-ago levels.
The drop in gasoline stocks was caused by a 327,000 b/d decline in
output, which was unable to offset a 197,000 b/d jump in imports to
1.050 million b/d.
Gasoline stocks on the Atlantic Coast, home of the NYMEX delivery point
for its RBOB futures contract, declined 1.663 million barrels to 49.674
million barrels, the lowest level since October 2008.
Implied gasoline demand continued to show early signs of erosion due to
high retail prices with the four-week moving average at 9.061 million
b/d, or 150,000 b/d below year-ago levels. Average retail gasoline
prices the week ending April 25 at $3.879/gal were $1.03/gal above
year-ago levels.
Week-over-week gasoline demand inched up 85,000 b/d to 9.148 million
b/d. Unlike gasoline, however, implied demand for middle distillates
dropped 375,000 b/d to 3.737 million b/d week-over-week. On a four-week
moving average demand for middle distillates at 3.83 million b/d was
259,000 b/d above year-ago levels.
Both stocks of ULSD and heating oil were lower, but given the arrival of
abnormally warm temperatures across the Atlantic Coast, demand for
winter fuels should drop precipitously.
With output of middle distillates down 103,000 b/d to 4.058 million b/d
and imports dropping 172,000 b/d to 121,000 b/d, a decrease in middle
distillate inventories was inevitable.
At 146.53 million barrels, stocks of middle distillates were 19.633
million barrels above the five-year average, but 5.29 million barrels
below year-ago levels.
--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com
To subscribe or visit go to: http://www.platts.com
