High-Speed Rail Sold With "False Promises"™

California voters passed a funding bill for a high-speed rail project based on lowball cost estimates and wildly inflated ridership predictions, according to a new report.

Before the 2008 election, the cost of a Los Angeles to San Francisco rail project was estimated at $33 billion, with another $7 billion for spurs to Sacramento and San Diego.

Voters narrowly approved issuing $9.95 billion in bonds, with expectations that the federal government and private investors would cover the rest. But after the election, cost estimates rose to $43 billion for the Los Angeles-San Francisco project alone.

Also, the one-way fare between the two cities was predicted to be $55, making it cheaper than flying. But after the election, ticket price estimates rose to $105, observes Adam B. Summers, a policy analyst at the Reason Foundation.

â€œLike most large public infrastructure projects, the California high-speed rail project was sold to the public based on false promises, exaggerated benefits and lowball cost estimates,â€ Summers writes in an opinion piece for the San Diego Union-Tribune.

He points out that ridership estimates are projected as high as 117 million passengers per year. Yet the entire Amtrak system, which includes more than 500 destinations and 21,000 miles of track, serves just 27 million passengers a year.

Summers notes that a September 2008 study published by the Reason Foundation and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association found that the actual cost of the high-speed rail system would be at least $65 billion and perhaps as high as $81 billion, and that â€œthe project was not viable because it was based on wildly optimistic assumptions.

Governors in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin have recently canceled plans for high-speed rail projects in their states. Summers urges that California, which is running deficits of up to $25 billion a year, â€œshould follow their example and put a stop to this boondoggle before it becomes yet another budgetary black hole for the state.