A new report on the outlook for OPV suggests the technology
will play a small role in the solar market through 2020.
Boston --
Organic PV (OPV), polymer-based solar that can be integrated
into building materials, paints and clothing, is often hailed as
the next step in solar technology. But don't expect OPV to make
a splash yet: A new report out from Lux Research projects the
market will only grow to $159 million in the next decade.
By comparison, the U.S. PV industry (manufacturing,
sales and installation) was worth about $6 billion in
2010,
according to GTM Research and SEIA
OPV can be produced quickly and cheaply on
roll-to-roll manufacturing lines. However,
as the Lux report points out, cell degradation
issues and low efficiencies mean that OPV is not a
viable alternative to conventional silicon PV and
leading thin films – and won't be in the next decade.
Companies producing OPV devices have recognized this,
and are mostly focusing on charging applications (solar
cells on backpacks) and remote power applications,
rather than trying to make the jump to grid-based
electricity production.
“While part of OPV’s appeal is the hope of low costs,
we found it won’t beat crystalline silicon or inorganic
thin film on cost per watt,” said Alex Carter, a Lux
Research Associate and the report’s lead author. “As a
result, developers will focus on niche applications
where OPV provides other capabilities like transparency
and flexibility.”
The report, titled estimates prospective growth for
OPV modules, which use organic (carbon-containing)
polymers or molecules to convert light to electricity.
The report calculates adoption potential for OPV’s two
main technology categories – bulk heterojunction (BHJ)
OPV devices and dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC) – in
five different market segments: building integrated
photovoltaics (BIPV), developing world applications,
defense, consumer electronics, and signage.
To estimate likely prospects for OPV through 2020,
Lux Research calculated the total market size
addressable by OPV in the five segments listed above. It
then projected potential market share for both BHJ OPV
and DSSCs. Among its key findings:
OPV will reach $159 million on the back
of BIPV and defense. Lux Research projects
an OPV market reaching 97 MW and $159 million in
2020. Here, defense signifies the largest market,
with BIPV close behind. BHJ technology dominates
early but, as flexible DSSC devices mature, they
gain to capture 53% of the market in 2020.
BIPV provides niches for both BHJ and
DSSC. The report examines three variations
on BIPV: flexible membranes for roofing and shade
structures like awnings, solar shingles for pitched
roofing, and rigid windows and fade elements. BIPV –
overall – will grow to 27 MW of demand and a $44
million market, with around two thirds of that based
on flexible membranes, and most of the balance from
windows and facades. BHJ takes 47% of the market
here by MW, but only 39% by revenues
Defense applications are driven by
portable power for soldiers. The ease of
integrating OPV into certain flexible structures and
the ability to pattern it could help set it apart
for some applications – like integration into tents
and even uniforms – and allow it to gain some market
share. In defense applications, OPV will expand to
34 MW in 2020, pulling in $64 million in revenues –
split 60:40 between DSSC and BHJ.