Pain at the pump: speculating on gasoline prices and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve


Consumers are feeling the pinch at the pump as gasoline prices head north even before peak summer driving demand hits.

In one state, where gasoline prices are the third cheapest in the nation, one politician is calling for the release of 50 million gallons of oil from the US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower prices and ease the pain consumers are feeling at the pump. And the leader of his state's retailers is opposed.

Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey is pushing for President Obama to release the oil and invest the profits raised from selling the reserves to reduce the deficit and invest in technologies that will decrease the US' oil dependence.

Not so fast, said Sal Risalvato, the executive director of the New Jersey Gasoline, Convenience Store, Automotive Association, or NJGCA, who calls opening SPR a "foolish move." "We don't have a supply/demand problem," for one, Risalvato said adding that SPR is intended for use only in limited situations to alleviate a significant disruption in the national oil supply.

"This means it was to be used for a legitimate emergency situation, like wartime, natural disasters, or even an OPEC nation taking advantage of our dependence on foreign oil and cutting off our supply," Risalvato said.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the largest stockpile of government-owned emergency crude oil in the world. It was established in the aftermath of the 1973-1974 oil embargo and provides the President with a response option should a disruption in commercial oil supplies threaten the US economy.

But the impetus to release SPR barrels today is not so clear.

Recently, OPEC secretary general Abdalla el-Badri said that oil markets currently have sufficient supply, with no real tightness evident despite the loss of most of Libya's crude production.

"The market is adequately supplied," Badri said while in Kuwait before a roundtable meeting of producers and consumers. "Oil production in March is almost the same as oil production in December even though one of our member countries is out of production right now," he added, referring to the loss of Libyan output in the midst of its violent political upheaval.

The largest release of crude oil from SPR in recent history was in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina devastated the US Gulf of Mexico. The US Department of Energy offered 30 million barrels for sale in September 2005 after President George W. Bush said there was a "severe energy supply interruption" in the aftermath of Katrina. Of that, 11 million barrels were sold and another 9.8 million barrels were released as emergency loans, according to the US DOE.

In today's market, where Risalvato said high crude oil and gasoline prices are being driven by speculation of further curtailments to global oil supply, rather than actual supply issues, a release of SPR is not warranted. "Market conditions today do not reflect an emergency situation to justify its use as was envisioned by its creators," he said. "Rather, industry statistics over the last six months illustrate that supplies of crude have remained stable despite the unrest in the Middle East."

For consumers, however, the price paid at the pump is daunting.

Motorists in the US pumped 1.6% less gasoline on a year-ago basis for the week ending April 15 for a total 65.229 million barrels pumped as gasoline prices continued to rise, according to a MasterCard Advisors report on April 19. The move came as the average retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline increased sharply, up $0.09 from a week earlier, averaging $3.81/gallon for the week to April 15, an increase of 33.7% from a year ago.

But Risalvato said releasing SPR at a time that is not an utter emergency could lead to disastrous effects if a real supply shortage was seen. "Should we actually be cut off from oil by our foreign suppliers, and we could not rely on SPR, our nation and economy would be crippled," he said.

Currently, the SPR stands at 726.6 million barrels, the highest ever held. The reserve has been above the 700 million mark since April 2008. When the EIA began keeping stats on SPR in August 1982, it was at 270.4 million barrels.

For retail gasoline stations, higher gasoline prices prices are also putting a strain on their bottom line. "Our members are telling us that volume is down and when a truck rolls into their stations, retailers now need $34,000 in cash to pay for the gasoline. Six months ago they needed $25,000 and a year-ago they needed $17,000," Risalvato said of his 1500-member association.

Risalvato said this is the first time since Hurricane Katrina in 2005 that the market has a "real reason" to speculate on the future of oil supplies, however the ongoing unrest in the Middle East has not curtailed oil supplies.

But, Risalvato contends that if the Arab nations curtail production or embargo oil for any reason, $5 to $10/gal retail gasoline is not out of the question in the near-term. However, until then, Risalvato said, it's in the hands of speculators.

For now, the debate continues to grow in the Garden State and across the US.

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