Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

 
Issued: 2011 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1176
(S16W51) produced a C2/Sf flare at 31/1535Z. Region 1183 (N15E14)
produced a C1 flare at 31/0202Z. Both regions exhibited gradual
decay during the period. No new regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (01 - 03 April) with a chance for moderate levels
(isolated M-class).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (01 April) due
to possible coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels during days 2 - 3 (02 - 03
April).
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 113
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
SUMMARY: 245 MHz Radio Emission
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Apr 2011 00:16:26.0437 (UTC) FILETIME=[0A589750:01CBF002]

Radio Events Observed 31 Mar 2011
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0526   0531    160          0527        0005  
0533   0538    160          0535        0005  
0533   0533    100          0533        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0518   0551    160          0547

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales