Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low with a slight chance for a M-class flare from Region 1195
(S16W12) for the next 3 days (26-28 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (26-27 April), and quiet
to unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 3 (28 April)
due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 112
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01