There are two ways to look at the street fights unfolding in
Cairo and other Middle Eastern capitals: As the inevitable
spread of freedom and democracy to pockets of the world long run
by iron-fisted monarchs and strongmen. Or, and possibly also, as
the beginning of the end of a Western economic recovery, since
chaos in oil-producing nations brings with it energy
instability. Couple that with inflation created by central bank
printing presses, and you could easily end up with much, much
higher oil prices
Oil already had been on a tear since September, with some
analysts fearing $110 a barrel prices soon and commodity guru
Jim Rogers telling anyone and everyone to get ready for $200 a
barrel.
Nevertheless, prices fell back to around $85 after ratings
agencies cut Japan and warned the United States on its debt. The
fear is that rising interest rates will choke off the nascent
global recovery, stunting demand for oil.
As the violence continued, Egyptian stocks have fallen sharply,
down 10.5 percent on Thursday. The cost to insure sovereign debt
across the region has pushed higher, Reuters reported, in Egypt,
Israel, Tunisia, Morocco, and Turkey.
"We have to look closely at the political situation in Egypt,
because it's clearly having a negative impact on all the area,"
Gaelle Blanchard, emerging markets strategist at Societe
Generale, told Reuters.
Pro-democracy leader Mohamed ElBaradei, better known in the West
as the former director general of the International Atomic
Energy Agency, joined the street protests in Friday as riot
police worked to beat back the biggest protests in three decades
in Cairo. ElBaradei is considered a contender to unseat longtime
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
Oil peaked over $140 a barrel right before the economic crisis
began, then fall straight down to the mid-$30 range in the
financial panic that ensued.
No matter what happens in the Middle East, rising gas taxes
imposed by broke U.S. local governments threaten to push up oil
prices anyway, warn JPMorgan analysts. States face billions in
budget shortfalls and have few places to get that money without
raising income or property taxes directly.
For now, however, optimism reigns among U.S. banks and
government leaders. Stocks have touched a psychologically
important level at 12,000 on the Dow and the flow of bad news —
in housing, jobs, and the enormous federal deficit — seems to be
balanced against the feeling that U.S. growth has been unfairly
discounted by investors.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, for one, believes that a U.S.
recovery is well under way, although he admits that jobs are
slower in appearing than after past recessions. A consensus of
economists now believe that the United States will grow between
3 percent and 4 percent in 2011, he pointed out.
The economy grew at a 3.2 percent annual rate in last quarter of
2010, according to the Commerce Department, below the 3.5
percent expected by some economists.
For the year, growth reached 2.9 percent, the biggest gain since
2005. The U.S. economy actually shrank by 2.6 percent in 2009 as
the recession unfolded.
"There's more confidence that we're going to avoid slipping back
into recession. I think that confidence is justified," Geithner
said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Stocks have roared up more than 83 percent from the lows of
March 2009 but now are too high, according to Robert Shiller,
the Yale University professor who co-created the closely watched
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
Stocks have broken above 12,000, a point not reach since June
2008 as the crisis began in earnest.
“I would say the market is overpriced based on fundamentals . .
. I'm talking about the U.S. and probably Europe," Shiller told
CNBC.
© Moneynews. All rights reserved.