Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1150 (S22W13)
decayed throughout the period. New Region 1152 (S18E11) was numbered
today after producing a B2 x-ray event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(4-6 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was very low throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly unsettled to active with the chance for a
minor storm on day 1 (4 February) due to coronal hole effects in
conjunction with the anticipated arrival of the CME from 30 January.
Conditions are forecast to be mostly unsettled on day 2 (5 February)
before returning to mostly quiet on day 3 (6 February) when coronal
hole effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 080
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           40/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           45/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales