Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1153 (N15W56) produced several low level B-class
events. Region 1153 showed an increase in areal coverage, sunspot
count, and magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight change for C-class activity for the
next three days (08-10 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(08-10 February).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 082
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales