Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1153 produced a fewbr / B-class and C-class events early in the period before rotating off
the disk. Region 1156 (S14E09) remained stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low over the next 3 days (11-13 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of
unsettled conditions between 10/06Z and 10/09Z at mid latitudes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (11-13 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 091
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01