Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Radio Events Observed 24 Feb 2011
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0730   0739    800          0737        0009  
0753   0753    350          0753        0000  
0916   0916    330          0916        0000  
0915   0915    450          0915        0000  
1526   1527    290          1526        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

Issued: 2011 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2011

 
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate during the past 24
hours. New Region 1163 (N18E72) produced an M3 x-ray event at
24/0738Z associated with a 180 sfu Tenflare, a Type II radio sweep
(estimated velocity of 1283 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. This
region is still rotating onto the visible disk. Region 1161 (N11W87)
and Region 1162 (N17W89) have been quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days (25-27 February), with Region
1163 the most likely source for an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (25-27
February).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 089
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  090/088/088
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 087
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  007/007-007/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales