THERE IS MUCH PRESS ABOUT THE CURRENT
U.S. natural gas glut. The glut won't last
for long. According to astrophysicist Michio Kaku,
if the world economic growth rate averages 3 percent
annually, within a century or two our civilization
will need to master all forms of terrestrial energy
and harness the potential resources of the entire
planet including modifying the weather, mining the
oceans, and extracting energy from the center of our
planet.
Kaku reminds us that mankind has slowly been
decarbonizing our sources of energy since we first
harnessed the power of firewood, evolving from coal
to oil, and now natural gas. With the recent
combined technology breakthroughs in horizontal
drilling and slick water fracking, this century will
be the century of natural gas as we slowly evolve to
the yet-to-be-determined next major source of
energy.
If this is the century of natural gas, why are gas
futures prices hovering at 10-year average low
prices of $4 through 2011? No doubt, demand has
eroded in the past two years as a result of the
severe recession the United States is tepidly
exiting. However, the market is excessively
discounting gas prices due to the anticipated huge
growth in supply from shale gas technology. This
discount is too deep.
Based on recent major oil company acquisitions, it
is clear the Marcellus shale is the mother lode of
natural gas in the United States, now estimated to
be the second-largest gas reserve in the world with
more than 500 trillion cubic feet of estimated
recoverable reserves. To get a sense of what impact
Marcellus shale drilling might have on gas supplies
I tried to figure out how many new Marcellus shale
horizontal wells it would take to add 1 trillion
cubic feet of annual gas supply for a country that
consumes about 23 trillion cubic feet per year -
about a 4 percent increase in supply.
I based my numbers on a conversation I recently had
with the chief geologist of one of the major players
in the Marcellus. He said that current drilling
successes indicate new Marcellus wells can average
as much as 2 million cubic feet per day for
first-year production and may level off in the
500,000 cubic feet per day range after four to five
years. This means that 1,370 new wells can produce 1
trillion cubic feet of gas in their first year of
production. It will take about 5,500 mature wells at
500,000 cubic feet per day to produce 1 trillion
cubic feet of gas annually. At 300,000 cubic feet
per day, you need more than 9,100 mature shale wells
to produce 1 trillion cubic feet annually.
Considering the entire exploration and production
industry has drilled about 2,000 wells in the first
four years of drilling the Marcellus, and a little
over 1,000 wells are expected to be permitted and
drilled annually over the next two years, I would
hardly view the Marcellus as the cause of the
current gas glut.
In the meantime, President Barack Obama's recently
lifted, but still effective, moratorium on deepwater
drilling in the Gulf of Mexico will reduce gas
supplies coming from the Gulf in the next 12 to 24
months. In addition, $4 per gallon gas makes many
land-based gas fields in North America unprofitable
and drilling in those fields is slowing down
quickly. Like the Fed's interest rate moves, it
takes 12 to 24 months for these events to work
through the system.
The economic and environmental benefits of natural
gas as a primary source of energy are compelling.
Gas emits half of coal's carbon- based pollutants.
At $4 per thousand cubic feet, gas sells for the
energy equivalent of about $26 per barrel of oil -
at a time when oil is selling for more than $80 per
barrel. You can fill an energy-equivalent compressed
natural gas fueled-car for about $7 per tank versus
$45 for a 15-gallon gasoline fill.
Obama recently acknowledged the vast potential of
the natural gas resources in the United States.
Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake Energy stated in a 60
Minutes segment that we have recently proved up the
equivalent of twice the oil reserves in Saudi Arabia
with U.S. natural gas shale formations - led by the
Marcellus shale. It will take five to 10 years for
the infrastructure and demand to catch up with the
new shale gas reserves under development.
This will be the century of natural gas as we
aggressively and environmentally consciously develop
these new reserves worldwide. As we do so, the
United States can become almost completely energy
self-sufficient in the next five to 10 years,
generating vast wealth for our nation.
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