Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels during the period
with only a few low-level B-class events observed. Region 1140
(N34E01) developed two spots to the NNE of the large H-type spot and
was reclassified as a Cso Beta. Region 1141 (N34W76) exhibited decay
in area and spot count while Region 1142 (S13W18) showed similar
decay, predominately in the trailer spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity,
all three days of the forecast period (06 - 08 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The ACE satellite
observed a sector boundary crossing from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) magnetic field at approximately 05/1830Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the
forecast period (06 - 08 January). Isolated active to minor storm
periods are possible beginning on 08 January. The forecasted
increase in activity levels is due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position
by 06 January.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 088
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 088/088/086
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 007/007-007/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales