Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity remained very low. Region 1146 (N23E06)
is the only spotted region on the visible disk. Soho C3 imagery
observed a CME liftoff at 13/1018Z off the northeast limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (14 - 16 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (14
- 15 January) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
becomes geoeffective. Quiet levels are expected on day three (16
January) as effects from the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 080
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 007/008-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales