Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
B-class flares were observed during the period. The largest of these
was a B4 flare at 17/0634Z from Region 1147 (N25E52). Region 1147
was classified as a Cso-beta group with 12 spots. Region 1148
(S28W32) was numbered today as a Bxo-beta group with 4 spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (18-20
January).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 082
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan  082/082/084
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales