Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1149 (N16W45)
produced a C1 flare at 24/0615Z. Region 1149 is currently a Dsi-beta
group, with a significant drop in spot count.  Region 1147 (N24W49)
produced a few low-level B-class flares and remains an Hsx-alpha
group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels, with isolated unsettled levels
possible at high latitudes, for the next three days (25-27 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 083
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  083/083/082
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales